Prediction of changing of dynamic characteristics of solair system’s planets up to 10 milliard years forward.
By the use of known Titius-Bode’s, Kepler’s and Newton’s laws there is a new, unknown before distribution pattern of planets from the central celestial body (the Sun), and satellites from the planet obtained. This pattern allows defining the Solar System planets’ dynamic characteristics’ temporal changes.
The dependence of Solar System planets’ removal from the Sun velocities look as follows:
vn = v1 + 4(vn-1 – vn-2) .
(1)
This formula is right for the Solar System formation’s every time point, because the planets’ removal velocities have constant values. Taking this into account we conclude, that the planets’ distances’ from the Sun dependence looks as follows:
vn = An rn ,
(2)
where vn is the planets’ removal velocity, An is the planets’ removal velocities’ constant:
An = 1/tn ,
(3)
where tn is the time on the planet’s evolution given moment, rn is the planet’s distance from the Sun in the n-1 time point. Substituting (2) and (3) in the formula (1) we get:
rn = r1 + 4(rn-1 – rn-2) ,
(4)
so, the planet’s distance from the Sun (the central celestial body) is equal to the first planet’s distance from the Sun plus the quadruple distance between two preceding to the n-1 one planets, where n is the given planet’s counted from the Sun number, rn is the given planet’s distance from the Sun, r1 is the first planet’s distance from the Sun, rn-2 is the preceding the given one planet’s distance from the Sun, rn-1 is the preceding the last one planet’s distance from the Sun.
The equation (4) can be produced as follows:
rn-1 – rn-2 = (rn – r1)/4 ,
(5)
so, the distance between placed one after other planets of a Solar System is equal to the quarter of the difference between the next and first planets’ distances from the Sun.
The equations (1) and (3) are showing the planet distance and removal velocity dependence of four revolving round the Sun bodies, taking into consideration the disturbing forces, arising in the neighbour planets’ gravitation fields.
Resolving the equation (4) together with Kepler’s 3-rd law we get:
[Изображение не найдено] ,
(6)
where T1, T2, m1, m2, r1, r2 are orbital periods, masses, and major orbit semi-axes correspondingly of the first and second planets, which are revolving round the Sun with the mass M. After transformations we get the value of the sought planet’s major orbit semi-axis:
[Изображение не найдено] .
(7)
The equation (7) represents the general form of the planet and satellite distances’ pattern, taken into consideration the disturbances experienced by every planet from gravitation forces, caused by surrounding planets and the Sun.
The known, obtained experimentally in accordance with classic celestial mechanics, planet distances and round the Sun revolution periods as well as obtained by authors calculating by Titius-Bode formula, planet and satellite distance pattern are shown in the table 1.
Table 1. The Solar System planets characteristics.
Planet
|
Classic celestial mechanics
|
Titius-Bode law
|
Planet and satellite distance pattern
|
r, astronomical units
|
T, years
|
r, astronomical units
|
T, years
|
r, astronomical units
|
T, years
|
Mercury
|
0.387
|
0.24
|
0.4
|
0.26
|
0.378
|
0.24
|
Venus
|
0.723
|
0.62
|
0.7
|
0.588
|
0.723
|
0.62
|
Earth
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
Mars
|
1.524
|
1.88
|
1.6
|
2.03
|
1.528
|
1.889
|
The asteroid belt
|
-
|
-
|
2.8
|
4.69
|
2.91
|
4.49
|
Jupiter
|
5.203
|
11.66
|
5.2
|
11.8
|
5.2
|
11.96
|
Saturn
|
10.539
|
29.46
|
10.0
|
31.65
|
9.785
|
30.61
|
Uranus
|
19.182
|
84.01
|
19.6
|
86.83
|
19.64
|
86.45
|
Neptune
|
30.058
|
164.8
|
38.8
|
241.72
|
29.65
|
161.4
|
Pluto
|
39.439
|
248.4
|
77.2
|
676.59
|
39.084
|
244.5
|
Comparing the Solar System planet characteristics, obtained in accordance with classic celestial mechanics’ laws (table 1, columns 2 and 3), with the planet characteristics, calculated in accordance with the planet distance law we can see, that the results are similar.
The planet revolution period can be obtained by Rado-Darwin formula:
[Изображение не найдено] ,
(8)
where ρ0 is the planet’s average density. This formula allows estimating tJ2 for the epoch, when the balanced figure of the planet was “fixed”, and the remained to present day value J*. Taking for the moment of inertia of Venus the value J* = 0.334, obtained by model calculations, V. N. Zharkov gives certain Venus’ time paleo-period:
[Изображение не найдено] .
(9)
This indicates that Venus was revolving more quickly some time. The “young” Venus’ revolution period, as it is mentioned by V. N. Zharkov, was shorter and equal to 10 hours, however the planet’s non-equilibrium, corresponding to that quick revolution, apparently is erased long ago from Venus’ “memory”, because of its mantle’s and nucleus’ “fluidity”.
In the same way, being aware of Mercury’s J* value, there is in the same work estimated the planet’s revolution period in its silicate mantle’s cooling and hardening epoch. Supposing in the same way as for Venus, that in that epoch the value corresponded to the hydrostatic equilibrium, then supposing for Mercury J* = 0.324 (the value, obtained on basis of model calculations), by Rado-Darwin formula the planet’s paleo-period is defined as [Изображение не найдено].
At the observations of Mercury’s revolution’s tidal decelerations is shown that the characteristic deceleration time is 109 years. This estimation is not conflicting with “young” Mercury’s known revolution period, which is equal to 8 hours. Moreover, it is possible to consider, that Mercury’s mantle is “hardened” and is distinctly stronger now, than after about 109 years its formation.
Assumed for Earth, that by the time of 0.6·109 years after its formation the main gravitational differentiation processes were mainly completed and moments of inertia were stabilized, V. N. Zharkov adduces Earth’s revolution period T0 for that epoch:
T0 = (8-9) hours T = 0.6·109 years.
(10)
Studying the specific angular momentum (the impulse per the mass unit) of planets there is an empiric pattern achieved, according to that this unchanged by tidal frictions momentum is proportional to M3/4, where M is the planet’s mass. On basis of this pattern there are estimated Earth’s revolution period’s limits in its post-formation early epoch as 13 hours and 10 hours.
There is the resonance correlations’ full system by A. M. Molchanov found for 9 known big planets.
Let’s using the results, obtained by the authors of above-mentioned researches on Solar System planets’ dynamic parameters’ temporal changes, study the planets’ round own axes revolution’s changes, starting from their formation moment.
After the processing of Mercury and Venus planets’ radiolocation data there were obtained new facts about their revolution. There was shown, that Mercury’s revolution period Tω relates to the revolution period T0 as 3/2, so there is the following resonance correlation:
[Изображение не найдено] .
(11)
The table 2 below, in which are represented Mercury’s dynamic characteristics, calculated by the formula (7), indicates, that Mercury’s paleo-period, calculated by V. N. Zharkov, and, as it was mentioned above, equal to [Изображение не найдено] days, corresponds to the time period T – (0.7-0.8)·109 years from the planet formation moment and the distance from the Sun, equal to r – (8.0-10.0) ·106 km, so 3.8-8.2 days.
Table 2. Mercury’s dynamic characteristics.
The time from Mercury’s formation, T, 109 years
|
Mercury’s revolution round the Sun period, T, years
|
Mercury’s distance from the Sun, r, 106 km
|
Mercury’s revolution period, Tω, hours
|
0.7
|
0.0138
|
8.60
|
3.42
|
1.0
|
0.029
|
10.084
|
7.20
|
1.7
|
0.0525
|
20.941
|
13.00
|
2.7
|
0.1045
|
33.259
|
25.90
|
3.7
|
0.168
|
45.58
|
41.60
|
4.7
|
0.24
|
57.90
|
59.44
|
5.7
|
0.32
|
70.20
|
79.25
|
6.7
|
0.41
|
82.50
|
101.50
|
7.7
|
0.505
|
94.85
|
125.10
|
8.7
|
0.606
|
107.17
|
150.20
|
9.7
|
0.721
|
120.35
|
178.20
|
10.7
|
0.827
|
131.80
|
204.80
|
11.7
|
0.946
|
144.00
|
234.30
|
12.7
|
1.07
|
156.40
|
285.00
|
13.7
|
1.195
|
168.80
|
296.00
|
14.7
|
1.3315
|
187.00
|
329.70
|
At this time Mercury was already in hydrostatic equilibrium and, as it was already mentioned above, was experiencing the cooling and hardening stage, thanks to its silicate mantle.
The result, obtained for “young” Mercury’s revolution time was equal to t = 8 hours, which in the table 2 corresponds to the time T = 0.15·109 years from the planet formation and it was at the distance r – 1.82·106 km from the Sun.
Table 2 indicates, that Mercury’s revolution period is increasing linearly from the formation moment till now and further (in the table are shown Mercury’s dynamic characteristics for up to 14.7·109 years), and will increasing with planet’s removal in the time.
According to radiolocation measurements, Venus’ revolution period is TV = 234.24 ± 0.1, which in measurement accuracy limits coincides with the value 243.16 days, at which Venus has to face Earth by its same side at every lower connection. The connection period is t = 583.02 days.
The resonance takes place at the following relationship:
[Изображение не найдено] .
(12)
From here we get the following dependence for Venus’ revolution period:
[Изображение не найдено] .
(13)
Supposing that the resonance dependence has remained unchanged, as it is noticed by A. M. Molchanov, from the moment “…of system’s evolutional maturity…”, we can calculate Venus’ revolution periods starting from its formation moment till its 14.7·109 years age. In the table 3 are shown planet’s dynamic characteristics for time points starting from 0.7·109 years from Venus’ formation. The calculation results are shown in table 3.
Table 3. Venus’ dynamic characteristics.
The time from Venus’ formation, T, 109 years
|
Venus’ revolution round the Sun period, T, years
|
Venus’ distance from the Sun, r, 106 km
|
Venus’ revolution period, Tω, hours
|
0.7
|
0.035
|
16.10
|
13.76
|
1.0
|
0.06
|
23.01
|
23.4
|
1.7
|
0.113
|
39.10
|
52.782
|
2.7
|
0.267
|
62.14
|
104.85
|
3.7
|
0.43
|
85.15
|
170.93
|
4.7
|
0.62
|
108.16
|
243.25
|
5.7
|
0.81
|
130.20
|
308.30
|
6.7
|
1.047
|
154.20
|
414.20
|
7.7
|
1.29
|
177.20
|
507.90
|
8.7
|
1.55
|
200.20
|
616.9
|
9.7
|
1.823
|
232.20
|
719.96
|
10.7
|
2.114
|
246.20
|
841.60
|
11.7
|
2.42
|
269.30
|
961.5
|
12.7
|
2.73
|
292.30
|
1078.25
|
13.7
|
3.055
|
315.30
|
10205.50
|
14.7
|
|
|
|
From the formula (12) we get Earth’s revolution period’s dependence, expressed by Venus’ dynamic parameters, when [Изображение не найдено] expressed by TE. Since [Изображение не найдено] , then
[Изображение не найдено] .
(14)
By the use of this formula are obtained Earth’s revolution periods starting from the time point T = 0.7·109 years from its formation. The numerical values of Earth’s revolution periods in different time points from its formation moment are shown in the table 4.
Table 4. Earth’s dynamic characteristics.
The time from Earth’s formation, T, 109 years
|
Earth’s revolution round the Sun period, T, years
|
Earth’s distance from the Sun, r, 106 km
|
Earth’s revolution period, Tω, hours
|
0.7
|
0.057 = 21 days
|
22.29
|
1.55
|
1.0
|
35.8 days
|
31.83
|
2.35
|
1.7
|
0.216 = 78.9 days
|
54.11
|
5.2
|
2.7
|
0.435
|
85.94
|
10.44
|
3.7
|
0.698
|
117.77
|
16.75
|
4.7
|
1.0 = 365.26 days
|
149.60
|
24 = 1.0 day
|
5.7
|
1.3317
|
187.43
|
32
|
6.7
|
1.702
|
213.26
|
40.9
|
7.7
|
2.10
|
245.10
|
50.4
|
8.7
|
2.515
|
276.92
|
60.4
|
9.7
|
2.965
|
308.75
|
71.2
|
10.7
|
3.43
|
340.58
|
82.33
|
11.7
|
3.93
|
372.4
|
94.3
|
12.7
|
4.44
|
404.24
|
106.6
|
13.7
|
4.97
|
436.10
|
119.3
|
14.7
|
5.55
|
467.90
|
133.2
|
The table 4, in which are shown Earth’s dynamic characteristics starting from its formation moment till our days and 10 milliard years after, indicates, that Earth’s revolution periods are increased linearly increasing the time.
The mentioned above astronomic and paleontologic research results are indicating Earth’s revolution’s deceleration as 2 sec per 100000 years, in the same time the observations during last 200 years are indicating 1 sec.
The numerical values of the revolution’s deceleration per 100000 years, obtained by authors, are shown in the table 5.
Table 5. Earth’s revolution’s deceleration.
Time from Earth’s formation, years
|
(0.7-1.7)·109
|
(1.7-2.7)·109
|
(2.7-3.7)·109
|
(3.7-4.7)·109
|
(4.7-5.7)·109
|
Deceleration time per 100000 years, t, sec
|
1.83
|
1.34
|
1.12
|
1.1
|
0.96
|
The table 5 indicates, that in the time period T = (0.7-1.7)·109 Earth’s revolution’s deceleration was really t = 1.83 or about 2 sec per 100000 years, but in present time the revolution’s deceleration is t = 0.96 or about 1 sec per 100000 years.
This way can be explained the above-mentioned inconsistency.
In the table 6 are shown Mars’ temporal dynamic characteristics, obtained at the supposition, that Mars’ and Earth’s revolution periods’ initial ratio [Изображение не найдено] is remained.
Mars’ revolution has not decelerated by the tidal friction, and, so, the planet has kept its initial revolution angular velocity and the corresponding angular momentum. The lunar and solar tides have decelerated Earth’s revolution, and about two times prolonged terrestrial days in the last two milliards years. This data coincides with the results, obtained by V. N. Zharkov. So, when excluded the lunar and solar tides’ influence, then Earth’s revolution period today would be equal to Earth’s and Mars’ revolution period 2.0·109 years ago, so Tω = 10.44 – 10.8 hours, or about 11 hours.
Furthermore, the paleontologists have recently shown, that the warm sea corals are growing, forming daily a fascia, the thickness of which depends on the light amount received during the day.
Table 6. Mars’ dynamic characteristics.
The time from Mars’ formation, T, 109 years
|
Mars’ revolution round the Sun period, T, years
|
Mars’ distance from the Sun, r, 106 km
|
Mars’ revolution period, Tω, hours
|
0.7
|
0.11
|
33.96
|
1.6
|
1.0
|
0.18
|
51.40
|
2.4
|
1.7
|
0.41
|
82.47
|
5.4
|
2.7
|
0.82
|
130.97
|
10.8
|
3.7
|
1.35
|
179.48
|
17.3
|
4.7
|
1.88
|
227.99
|
24.7
|
5.7
|
2.52
|
276.50
|
39.2
|
6.7
|
3.24
|
325.00
|
42.1
|
7.7
|
3.94
|
373.50
|
51.88
|
8.7
|
4.75
|
422.00
|
62.13.
|
9.7
|
5.60
|
470.50
|
73.25
|
10.7
|
6.46
|
519.00
|
84.73
|
11.7
|
7.39
|
567.60
|
97.10
|
12.7
|
8.35
|
616.10
|
109.70
|
13.7
|
9.36
|
664.60
|
122.80
|
14.7
|
10.40
|
713.10
|
137.10
|
The results of the day duration determination by coral fossils researches are shown in the table 7.
Table 7. Earth’s revolution’s deceleration according to paleontologic data.
Period
|
Time, million years
|
Year duration, days
|
Day duration, hours
|
Relative day duration
|
Present time
|
0
|
365.25
|
24
|
1
|
Cretaceous
|
72
|
370.33
|
23.67
|
0.986
|
Permian
|
270
|
384.10
|
22.82
|
0.951
|
Carboniferous
|
298
|
387.50
|
22.62
|
0.943
|
Devonian
|
380
|
398.75
|
21.98
|
0.916
|
Silurian
|
440
|
407.10
|
21.53
|
0.897
|
The table indicates, that the day duration is noticeably increasing with the time. So, e.g. in Devonian period the day duration was equal 0.916·84164 = 78926 sec., so less 7238 sec. in 380 million years, so less 1.9 sec. in 100000 years.
It is quite obvious that these numbers cannot be considered exact, however they give unambiguously the order of values.
Before this time there was apparently only the solar tides’ influence on Earth and Mars, and their evolution followed the same laws.
The revolution period was equal to 11 hours. This way, if supposed, that the lunar tides’ influence has started affecting Earth’s revolution 4·109 years ago then really Earth’s revolution is decelerated two times. This conclusion allows concluding, that the Moon was separately formed and by Earth’s gravitation field caught 4·109 years ago.
The adduced calculations by formula 7 are confirming many authors’ opinion, that in their formation’s early period the planets Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars were revolving very quickly about their axes, like untwisted tops. With the time, moving away from the Sun, they have decelerated their movement.
The revolution velocities of planets and their distances from the Sun in the early period of their formation can testify their “heat” origination.
In the present the Earth is moving non-uniformly on its orbit, and we have to take it into account while resolving earthquakes’ accurate prediction problem. |