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Some forecasts

27 июня 2010 No comments

In this section of our site we will publish some our old forecasts, which early reception is confirmed by the documents of the corresponding agencies.

Earthquake information is picked out from the databases of US Geological Survey Earthquake Hazard Program and European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre. Some damage estimates are taken from the databases of The Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).

In the presented below information the following notation is used: N - north latitude, S - south latitude, E - East longitude, W - west longitude.

Earthquake information is presented as of 01/24/2010 (seismological agencies sometimes perform corrections on the events in the past).

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China earthquake, Sichuan province in 2008 year

27 июня 2010 No comments

Event: 05/12/2008 Magnitude 7.9 - EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA 2008, location: 30.986°N, 103.364°E, 80 km (50 miles) WNW of Chengdu
Fatalities: about 87,000 people killed (including 1300 kids), 370,000 injured, 18,000 missing
Economic loss: about $85 billions, 5 millions were left homeless

We didn't submitted short-term forecast to the China Embassy in Russia in 3–5 days prior to earthquake. But from the 1998 year via China Embassy we repeatedly have been offered cooperation to the China Government. It's worth to note that offer made to the PRC is unique. We have offered full unpaid transfer of technology. Unfortunately, our proposal again was left with no response.

Following materials are currently in Russian only.
Letter №40 of 08/10/1998. Mirror
Letter of 05/19/2006. Mirror
Fax to the Embassy of 06/17/2006. Mirror
Reply of the PRC Embassy in Moscow of 06/13/2006. Mirror

After this letters correspondence was terminated by the china side. Though we are still offering our technology to the PRC:
Letter of 06/17/2008. Mirror

Earthquake of 2008 has occurred at the distance of 80 km from Chengdu, which was mentioned in the letter of 1998 as the region with highly increased noncompensation on Earth's surface of the polarization potential.

In the strong earthquake preparation process "marking" of the future epicenters take place long time before the actual event. These are the mentioned above areas with maximal noncompensation of the polarization potential. During earthquake preparation hypocenter (central point of the earthquake zone, the point where the fault begins to rupture) is being gradually localizing in the point with definite coordinates, in which lately earthquake will occurr. All these process have specific reflection in our instrumentation system data and on its basis it is possible to develop middle-term (till several years before the event) and short-term (3–5 days before the event) earthquake forecasts. These forecasts corresponds to the definite stages of the future earthquake localization process.

On the following figure WBG-4 signals prior to the Sichuan earthquake are presented.

WBG-4 signals for period of 05/01/2008-05/15/2008

WBG-4 signals for period of 05/01/2008-05/15/2008

On May 8–9 of 2008 it was registered intensive high-frequency precursor of the strong earthquake. Analogous signals having different intensity our instrumentation system registers 3–5 days prior to all strong earthquake. This signals carries information about completion of the earthquake preparation.

Using our system it would be possible to perform accurate localization of earthquake preparation region and also time of event estimation so thousands human lives could be saved.

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Kazakhstan earthquake in 2005

27 июня 2010 No comments

Recipient: Kazakhstan Embassy in Russia
Forecast: № 63 of 06/21/2005. Mirror
Forecast content: Developing seismical tensity in the Almaty region in the coordinates of 43.0–43.5°N 77.0–77.5°E.
Actual events:
06/24/2005Earthquake M4.6, coordinates: 43,02°N 77,23°E
This forecast was the second experience in time of event estimation in 3–5 days prior to the earthquake.

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Turkey earthquake in 2003

27 июня 2010 No comments

Recipient: Turkey Embassy in Russia
Forecast: № 43 of 03/12/2003. Mirror
Forecast content: Strong earthquake with М>6 in the following coordinates: 37–38°N and 40–41°E.
Actual events:
05/01/2003 – Magnitude 6.4 EASTERN TURKEY 2003 May 01, location: 39.00°N 40.44°E
Economic loss and fatalities: thousands people killed including 640 kids. Read more...

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Severe storm in France and Italy and subsequent earthquake in 2001 year

27 июня 2010 No comments

Recipient: Prime-minister of Italy, President of USA, President of France (submitted to the corresponding Embassies in Russia)
Forecast: № 47 of 05/24/2001. Mirror
Forecast content: Anomalous synoptic events and earthquake in the coordinates of 44–45°N and 7–9°E will take place before heads of states meeting in Genoa on 07/20/2001.
Actual events:
07/06/2001–07/08/2001Severe storms in northern France
07/08/2001Tornado ripped through northern Italy
07/18/2001Earthquake with M4.6 in coordinates
Economic loss and fatalities: More than $500 millions of economic losses in France, 3 people were killed.
This forecast was the first experience in time of event estimation.

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Italy earthquake in 2000 year, near Asti

27 июня 2010 No comments

Recipient: Italy Embassy in Russia
Forecast: №29 of 07/28/2000
Forecast content: Earthquake in the following coordinates: 44-45°N, 7-9°E
Actual events: 08/21/2000 Earthquake with M4.9, location: 44,87°N, 8,48°E

After mentioned above successful forecast O.V. Martynov was invited to visit Italy. This visit was covered by the Italian mass media (newspapers and TV). If you have any more information than presented on our site please post links to it in the comments section. Read more...

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Azerbaijan earthquakes in 1999–2000

27 июня 2010 No comments

Recipient: Azerbaijan Embassy in Russia
Forecast: Fax to the Embassy on 02/03/1999 (зеркало), repeat on the 02/12/1999 (зеркало)
Articles in the newspaper "Komsomolskya pravda": №22 of 02/15/1999 and 09/25/1999, page 3 (зеркало)
Forecast content: Earthquakes cycle, starting in the following coordinates 40°N 48-49°E with further movement along the trajectory Kazi-Magomed city - Baku city (with earthquake M>6) and next to the sea to the oil production region with coordinates 52-55°E
Actual events:
06/04/1999 Earthquake M5.4, coordinates 40,8°N 47,45°E (Agdam region), 14 people were killed;
03/21/2000 Earthquake M5.2, coordinates 39,95°N 48,23°E (Qaz?m?mm?d region), 7 people were killed;
11/25/2000 Earthquakes with M6.8 and 6.5, coordinates 40,24°N 49,95°E and 40,17°N 49,95°E (Baku region), according to the EMERCOM of Russia 600 people were killed;
12/06/2000 Earthquake with M7.0, coordinates 39,57°N 54,80°E (Caspian Sea, oil production region). Read more...

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Turkey Earthquakes in 1999 year

27 июня 2010 No comments

Recipient: Turkey Embassy in Russia
Forecast: № 21 of 08/09/1999. Mirror
Forecast content: Strong earthquake with М>6 in the following coordinates: 40°N and 28–30°E. or 40°N and 40–42°E
Actual events:
08/17/1999 – Magnitude 7.6 TURKEY 1999 August 17, location: 40.74°N, 29.86°E, more than 200,000 were killed
11/12/1999 – Magnitude 7.2 TURKEY 1999 November 12, location 40.75°N 31.16°E, 7,000 people were killed

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