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Русский Successful Taiwan earthquake forecast and the experiment results
On the March 21 on our site it was presented Taiwan earthquake forecast (currently it is available in Russian only) prepared during joint seismic forecasting experiment.
Forecast parameters were the following:
– magnitude: M?6.4;
– date: before 07/04/2010, most probable dates are 25/03±2 days, 01/04±2 days, 02/04±2 days, 07/04±2 days
– location: north Taiwan or Ryukyu islands.
and тof the global geophysical situation on March, 26 also were presented on the RC EOM' site.
Different seismological agencies estimate earthquake magnitude using different scales. In the following data USGS, EMSC and TWN are database of the US Geological Survey Earthquake Hazard Program, European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre and Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan respectively.
Before ending date of the forecast (April, 9) in the forecast area several small earthquakes have been occurred:
1) 26.03.2010, 23:07, M5.2 (TWN), M4.4 (), 24.1°N, 121.7°E
2) 03.04.2010, 23:02, M5.2 (TWN), 24,9°N, 122,6°E
3) 09.04.2010, 11:49, M4.3 (), M4.3 (USGS), 24.1°N, 122.08°E
As of 09/04/2010 in the forecast area seismic cloud indicators have been being observed together with the anomalies in the used indicators set including gravitational – WBG data, proton diffusion, electromagnetic and Earth rotational data. Considering the mentioned above indicators the forecast has been prolonged for 14 days till 23/04/2010 with the same parameters (magnitude, location).
On 09/04/2010, D.Sc. I. Shugan presented the forecast on the seminar at the Taiwan Central Maritime Bureau.
As of 23/04/2010 in the forecast are some earthquakes have been occurred:
1) 11.04.2010, 04:57, M5.5 (, M5.3(USGS), 23.29°N, 122.06°E
2) 13.04.2010, 14:24, M4.6 (), M4.2 (USGS), 23.19°N, 121.27°E
3) 13.04.2010, 20:49, M4.9 (), M4.9 (USGS), 23.28°N, 121.39°E
Global geophysical situation on 23/04/2010
As of 23/04/2010, similarly to the situation on the 09/04/2010, the predicted seismic event remains unrealized. But the seismic cloud indicators have still been being observed in the forecast area.
Also WBG system registered significant anomalies correlated with the rest used indicators (check the message О приближающихся крупных землетрясениях on our site).
In the results of the geophysical situation analysis the forecast again has been prolonged for 14 days. Russia Expert Council has been made aware of forecast prolongation on 23/04/2010 by L.N. Doda.
Forecast area and earthquakes of the March-April of 2010
On 26/04/2010 in the forecast area strong has been occurred having the following parameters:
date, time: 26.04.2010 02:59 UTC;
location: 22.22°N, 123.71°E
magnitude: M 6.5
Thus another stage of the Taiwan seismic forecasting experiment has been successfully finished. In the results of the experiment after October of 2009 it was established 5 sequential forecasts of the earthquakes with М6.0+ and only one event of 19.12.2009 with М6.4 was missed.
